Q1 FY27 Result Review

Global: Conditions swung sharply through the quarter. A West Asia escalation lifted crude and risk premia early on; the subsequent ceasefire and oil correction pulled G-Sec yields lower across tenors and drew strong FPI bond inflows. Trade policy remained the swing variable, with India's relative tariff position improving and the UK and EU free trade agreements progressing.

India: Activity beat expectations. Real GDP grew 7.8% YoY in Q1FY27 to Rs 81.36 lakh crore against the ~7% the RBI had projected, with nominal GDP up 10.3%. The MPC held the repo at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting on a neutral stance. CPI is projected at 4.6% for FY27 versus roughly 2% in FY26 — normalisation off an unusually low base rather than an inflation shock.

Aggregate PAT rose 18% YoY, the strongest print in ten quarters and roughly 800 bps ahead of the ~10% consensus; listed India Inc revenue grew 19.4%, an eight-quarter high.

The beat survives every scrub: EPS grew 12.9% against 4.5% expected, 11.5% excluding financials versus 1.9%, and 7.6% excluding oil and gas as well versus 3.2%.